Table 2.
Alternative Applications & Hypothetical Test Results
2.5 Years from April 19, 2002 to October 15, 2004
|
|
end |
total |
com- |
worst |
draw- |
reward |
|
Alternative |
value |
% |
pound |
draw- |
down |
to risk |
|
Applications |
$1 start |
gain |
%/yr |
down% |
mnths |
ratio * |
|
1 |
DIA Buy/Hold |
0.953 |
-4.7 |
-1.9 |
-25 |
5 |
0 |
|
2 |
SPY Buy/Hold |
0.974 |
-2.6 |
-1.0 |
-28 |
6 |
0 |
|
3 |
QQQ Buy/Hold |
1.039 |
3.9 |
1.5 |
-38 |
5 |
0 |
|
4 |
DIA+timing |
1.181 |
18.1 |
6.9 |
-10 |
8 |
2 |
|
5 |
SPY+timing |
1.276 |
27.6 |
10.3 |
-5 |
6 |
6 |
|
6 |
QQQ+timing |
1.398 |
39.8 |
14.4 |
-17 |
3 |
2 |
|
7 |
SPY Buy/Sell short |
1.576 |
57.6 |
20.0 |
-13 |
3 |
4 |
|
8 |
Always in top 2 ranks |
1.311 |
31.1 |
11.5 |
-37 |
9 |
1 |
|
9 |
Top 2 ranks+timing |
1.888 |
88.8 |
29.1 |
-9 |
3 |
10 |
|
10 |
BuyTop 2/Sshrt Btm 1 |
2.939 |
193.9 |
54.2 |
-26 |
6 |
7 |
|
* total % gain/worst drawdown
|
| |
Drawdown is the largest price decline from the highest price after purchase.
It is not a realized loss but can create mental stress.
Each of the applications uses the same prescribed conditions.
The first three, of course, are not applications,
but index benchmarks for comparison.
In Application No. 10, one position or the other is held
sequentially, not both at the same time.
|
© 2005-07 The 2000 Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
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