WINNING INVESTMENTS with EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
SYSTEM MOSTLY USA ETFs Home
Long Only results here

Table 3.

Current Real-time Results
Trading System Mostly USA Versions 1.0 and 2.0

Including Short Sales
From August 27, 2004 to the Present
See footnotes below



Market

Event

$

%

weeks

*avg

cum%

cum%

Trend

Date

Fund

Buy

Sell

Date

Gain

Gain

held

%Gain

Gain

SP500

SP500

up

8/27/2004

XLE

31.50

36.58

12/24/2004

5.08

16.1

17

16.1

108

109

1205

up

8/27/2004

OIH

73.00

82.60

12/3/2004

9.60

13.2

14

14.6

115

108

1191

up

12/3/2004

HHH

70.42

66.74

1/7/2005

-3.68

-5.2

5

8.0

112

107

1186

up

12/24/2004

IJR

162.88

153.46

1/7/2005

-9.42

-5.8

2

4.6

109

107

1186

down

2/25/2005

SMH

34.47

31.48

1/7/2005

-2.99

-9.5

7

1.8

99

109

1211

down

5/20/2005

HHH

57.12

56.80

2/25/2005

-0.32

-0.6

12

1.4

98

108

1194

up

5/20/2005

BBH

164.72

189.54

8/26/2005

24.82

15.1

14

3.3

105

109

1205

up

5/20/2005

XLE

39.90

47.18

7/22/2005

7.28

18.2

9

5.2

115

111

1229

up

7/22/2005

OIH

111.09

112.86

8/26/2005

1.77

1.6

5

4.8

116

109

1205

down

9/9/2005

DIA

106.70

103.90

8/26/2005

-2.80

-2.7

2

4.0

113

109

1205

down

11/18/2005

OEX

574.69

574.13

9/9/2005

-0.56

-0.1

10

3.7

113

113

1248

up

11/18/2005

EWJ

12.62

13.27

12/30/2005

0.65

5.2

6

3.8

116

113

1248

up

11/18/2005

BBH

210.15

208.80

11/25/2005

-1.35

-0.6

1

3.4

115

115

1268

up

11/25/2005

OIH

126.25

130.23

12/30/2005

3.98

3.2

5

3.4

117

113

1248

down

2/24/2006

OEX

583.75

570.00

12/30/2005

-13.75

-2.4

8

3.0

114

117

1289

down

7/28/2006

HHH

45.12

60.00

2/27/2006

14.88

24.8

21

4.4

143

116

1279

up

7/28/2006

XLE

58.20

50.70

9/22/2006

-7.50

-12.9

8

3.4

133

119

1315

up

7/28/2006

EFA

65.94

69.22

10/13/2006

3.28

5.0

11

3.5

137

123

1366

up

9/22/2006

XLF

34.41

35.02

10/20/2006

0.61

1.8

4

3.4

138

124

1369

up

10/13/2006

OEX

633.61

652.60

11/17/2006

18.99

3.0

5

3.4

140

127

1401

up

10/20/2006

XLK

22.75

22.98

12/22/2006

0.23

1.0

9

3.2

141

128

1411

up

11/17/2006

QQQQ

44.16

42.93

12/22/2006

-1.23

-2.8

5

3.0

139

128

1411

down

2/9/2007

SMH

33.92

33.27

12/22/2006

-0.65

-2.0

7

2.8

136

130

1438

down

3/23/2007

OIH

147.72

137.00

2/9/2007

-10.72

-7.8

6

2.3

125

130

1436

down

4/20/2007

BBH

187.99

177.50

3/23/2007

-10.49

-5.9

4

2.0

118

134

1484

up

4/20/2007

EFA

79.60

80.69

5/11/07

1.09

1.4

3

2.0

119

136

1506

up

4/20/2007

MDY

159.91

161.29

4/27/2007

1.38

0.9

1

1.9

119

135

1494

up

4/27/2007

OIH

159.99

170.26

5/18/2007

10.27

6.4

3

2.1

123

138

1523

up

5/11/07

XLE

65.19

68.07

5/18/2007

2.88

4.4

1

2.2

126

138

1523

down

6/1/2007

BBH

182.25

178.04

5/18/2007

-4.21

-2.4

2

2.0

123

139

1536

up

6/1/2007

OIH

169.15

167.76

6/8/2007

-1.39

-0.8

1

1.9

122

136

1508

up

6/1/2007

XLE

68.73

68.06

6/8/2007

-0.67

-1.0

1

1.8

122

136

1508

down

9/14/2007

BBH

172.00

179.18

6/8/2007

7.18

4.0

14

1.9

127

130

1436

up

9/14/2007

OIH

182.90

190.41

11/2/2007

7.51

4.1

7

2.0

129

136

1506

up

9/14/2007

XLE

72.35

74.97

11/2/2007

2.62

3.6

7

2.0

132

136

1506

down

12/7/2007

XLF

31.54

30.96

11/2/2007

-0.58

-1.9

5

1.9

129

136

1505

down

12/14/2007

SMH

32.56

33.50

12/7/2007

0.94

2.8

1

1.9

133

132

1465

down

2/8/2008

XLF

27.07

29.20

12/14/2007

2.13

7.3

8

2.1

142

120

1332

down

2/29/2008

SMH

28.58

28.20

2/8/2008

-0.38

-1.3

3

2.0

140

120

1330

up

2/29/2008

XLE

76.10

86.60

6/6/2008

10.50

13.8

14

2.3

150

123

1361

up

2/29/2008

IBB

75.74

73.20

3/7/2008

-2.54

-3.4

1

2.1

138

117

1293

up

3/7/2008

BBH

169.80

168.35

4/18/2008

-1.45

-0.9

6

2.1

138

125

1388

up

4/18/2008

OIH

208.73

213.00

6/6/2008

4.27

2.0

7

2.1

139

125

1388

down**

7/16/2008

XLF

17.75

23.46

6/6/2008

5.71

24.3

6

2.6

173

110

1215

down

8/8/2008

DIA

117.03

115.41

7/18/2008

-1.62

-1.4

3

2.5

170

117

1294

up

8/8/2008

OIH

181.67

179.96

8/15/2008

-1.71

-0.9

1

2.4

170

117

1298

up

8/8/2008

BBH

201.70

187.94

9/26/2008

-13.76

-6.8

7

2.2

164

109

1209

up

8/15/2008

IBB

90.29

83.58

9/26/2008

-6.71

-7.4

6

2.0

158

109

1209

down

10/3/2008

EFA

51.18

56.78

9/26/2008

5.60

9.9

1

2.2

173

99

1098

down

1/2/2009

OIH

79.15

120.36

10/3/2008

41.21

34.2

13

2.8

233

84

929

up

1/2/2009

BBH

90.56

86.97

5/8/2009

-3.59

-4.0

18

2.7

228

83

923

up

1/2/2009

IBB

71.95

64.45

4/3/2009

-7.50

-10.4

13

2.4

220

76

840

up

4/3/2009

HHH

37.01

42.96

6/26/2009

5.95

16.1

12

2.7

246

83

920

up

5/8/2009

XLK

16.93

17.00

5/15/2009

0.07

0.4

1

2.6

221

80

886

up

5/15/2009

QQQQ

33.59

36.28

6/12/2009

2.69

8.0

4

2.7

230

85

942

up

6/12/2009

OIH

109.31

100.77

6/26/2009

-8.54

-7.8

2

2.6

221

83

920

down

7/17/2009

IBB

72.29

72.82

6/26/2009

0.53

0.7

3

2.5

222

85

942

down

10/9/2009

XLE

56.60

49.09

7/17/2009

-7.51

-15.3

12

2.2

188

97

1072

down

11/20/2009

BBH

96.81

100.85

10/9/2009

4.04

4.0

6

2.2

196

99

1095

down

11/27/2009

EWJ

9.57

9.45

11/20/2009

-0.12

-1.3

1

2.2

193

99

1091

down

2/12/2010

SP500

1079.13

1092.40

1/22/2010

13.27

1.2

3

2.2

196

98

1079

up

2/12/2010

IBB

85.08

91.63

4/9/2010

6.55

7.7

8

2.3

203

108

1195

up

2/12/2010

MDY

131.38

142.34

3/12/2010

10.96

8.3

4

2.4

212

104

1149

up

3/12/10

IJR

59.44

63.30

4/30/2010

3.86

6.5

7

2.4

219

107

1189

up

4/9/2010

HHH

62.67

62.94

4/16/2010

0.27

0.4

1

2.4

219

108

1192

up

4/16/2010

IWM

71.06

73.31

4/30/2010

2.25

3.2

2

2.4

223

107

1189

down

5/7/2010

BBH

94.41

96.81

4/30/2010

2.40

2.5

1

2.4

228

101

1122

down

6/11/2010

SP500

1095.00

1122.27

5/7/2010

27.27

2.4

5

2.4

234

99

1095

up

6/11/2010

IJR

58.05

59.52

6/18/2010

1.47

2.5

1

2.4

237

108

1192

up

6/11/2010

MDY

139.47

142.15

6/18/2010

2.68

1.9

1

2.4

239

108

1192

up

6/18/2010

SMH

28.86

27.14

6/25/2010

-1.72

-6.0

1

2.3

232

97

1078

up

6/18/2010

QQQQ

47.60

45.27

6/25/2010

-2.33

-4.9

1

2.2

226

97

1078

down

7/9/2010

SP500

1077.23

1077.50

6/25/2010

0.27

0.0

2

2.2

226

97

1077

up

7/9/2010

SMH

27.30

27.88

8/6/2010

0.58

2.1

4

2.2

229

101

1123

up

7/9/2010

DIA

101.87

102.80

8/13/2010

0.93

0.9

5

2.1

230

97

1077

up

8/6/2010

EFA

53.89

50.72

8/13/2010

-3.17

-5.9

1

2.0

223

97

1077

down

9/3/2010

SP500

1102.60

1077.49

8/13/2010

-25.11

-2.3

3

2.0

218

100

1103

up

9/3/2010

HHH

59.41

70.50

11/19/2010

11.09

18.7

11

2.2

238

108

1198

up

9/3/2010

EFA

52.11

53.91

9/17/2010

1.80

3.5

2

2.2

242

102

1127

up

9/17/2010

QQQQ

48.18

48.78

10/8/2010

0.60

1.2

3

2.2

244

105

1165

up

10/8/2010

EFA

56.98

57.44

10/15/2010

0.46

0.8

1

2.2

245

106

1177

up

10/15/2010

OIH

119.34

119.83

10/22/2010

0.49

0.4

1

2.2

245

107

1185

up

10/22/2010

QQQQ

51.86

52.76

11/12/2010

0.90

1.7

3

2.1

247

108

1200

up

11/12/2010

OIH

127.96

130.28

11/19/2010

2.32

1.8

1

2.1

250

108

1199

down

12/3/2010

SP500

1223.87

1198.70

11/19/2010

-25.17

-2.1

2

2.1

244

111

1224

up

12/3/2010

HHH

72.15

72.82

12/23/2010

0.67

0.9

3

2.1

246

113

1255

up

12/3/2010

OIH

137.59

150.34

1/28/2011

12.75

9.3

8

2.2

257

115

1277

up

12/23/2010

IWM

78.50

78.69

12/31/2010

0.19

0.2

1

2.1

257

114

1257

up

12/31/2010

XLE

68.13

71.58

1/28/2011

3.45

5.1

4

2.2

264

115

1277

down

2/4/2011

SP500

1311.85

1276.50

1/28/2011

-35.35

-2.7

1

2.1

257

111

1224

up

2/4/2011

OIH

156.15

163.84

2/25/2011

7.69

4.9

3

2.2

263

119

1322

up

2/4/2011

XLE

74.44

78.24

2/25/2011

3.80

5.1

3

2.2

270

119

1322

down

3/25/2011

SPX

1315.45

1327.32

2/25/2011

11.87

0.9

4

2.2

272

119

1313

up

3/25/2011

OIH

158.79

154.19

4/15/2011

-4.60

-2.9

3

2.1

268

119

1313

up

3/25/2011

XLE

78.50

76.00

4/15/2011

-2.50

-3.2

3

2.1

264

119

1313

down

4/22/2011

SP500

1337.14

1313.35

4/15/2011

-23.79

-1.8

1

2.0

259

119

1313

up

4/22/2011

IBB

105.38

106.99

5/6/2011

1.61

1.5

2

2.0

261

121

1340

up

4/22/2011

XLE

79.03

75.16

5/6/2011

-3.87

-4.9

2

1.9

255

121

1340

down

5/20/2011

SP500

1333.07

1340.20

5/6/2011

7.13

0.5

2

1.9

256

120

1333

up

5/20/2011

IBB

107.93

109.66

5/27/2011

1.73

1.6

1

1.9

258

120

1331

up

5/20/2011

HHH

75.74

75.57

5/27/2011

-0.17

-0.2

1

1.9

258

120

1331

down

7/1/2011

SP500

1339.59

1331.10

5/27/2011

-8.49

-0.6

5

1.9

256

120

1331

up

7/1/2011

IBB

108.00

106.87

7/15/2011

-1.13

-1.0

2

1.9

255

119

1316

up

7/1/2011

IJR

74.56

70.74

7/8/2011

-3.82

-5.1

1

1.8

248

122

1352

up

7/8/2011

HHH

80.05

78.09

7/15/2011

-1.96

-2.4

1

1.7

245

119

1316

down

7/22/2011

SP500

1344.32

1315.94

7/15/2011

-28.38

-2.1

1

1.7

240

119

1316

up

7/22/2011

IBB

108.22

105.61

7/29/2011

-2.61

-2.4

1

1.7

237

117

1293

up

7/22/2011

HHH

78.90

80.20

7/29/2011

1.30

1.6

1

1.7

239

117

1293

down

8/26/2011

SP500

1177.91

1292.59

7/29/2011

114.68

9.7

4

1.7

263

106

1178

up

8/26/2011

HHH

72.33

72.78

9/9/2011

0.45

0.6

2

1.7

263

103

1137

up

8/26/2011

QQQ

53.66

52.04

9/2/2011

-1.62

-3.0

1

1.7

259

106

1174

up

9/2/2011

BBH

93.82

93.82

9/9/2011

0.00

0.0

1

1.7

259

103

1137

down

9/16/2011

SP500

1214.99

1136.91

9/9/2011

-78.08

-6.4

1

1.6

243

110

1215

up

9/16/2011

HHH

81.21

78.64

9/23/2011

-2.57

-3.2

1

1.6

239

103

1137

up

9/16/2011

QQQ

55.90

54.42

9/23/2011

-1.48

-2.6

1

1.5

236

103

1137

down

10/7/2011

SP500

1158.15

1136.91

9/23/2011

-21.24

-1.8

2

1.5

231

105

1158

up

10/7/2011

HHH

78.89

78.00

11/11/2011

-0.89

-1.1

5

1.5

230

114

1264

up

10/7/2011

BBH

101.43

108.09

10/28/2011

6.66

6.6

3

1.5

238

116

1285

up

10/28/2011

QQQ

58.43

57.75

11/4/2011

-0.68

-1.2

1

1.5

236

113

1253

up

11/4/2011

BBH

106.00

105.90

11/11/2011

-0.10

-0.1

1

1.5

236

114

1264

down

12/2/2011

SP500

1244.33

1263.85

11/11/2011

19.52

1.6

3

1.5

240

114

1264

up

12/2/2011

BBH

101.43

102.72

12/16/2011

1.29

1.3

2

1.5

241

110

1220

up

12/2/2011

DIA

121.83

120.96

12/9/2011

-0.87

-0.7

1

1.5

240

113

1255

up

12/9/2011

IBB

101.01

100.24

12/16/2011

-0.77

-0.8

1

1.4

240

110

1220

down

12/23/2011

SP500

1265.02

1219.74

12/16/2011

-45.28

-3.6

1

1.4

231

110

1220

up

12/23/2011

IBB

103.05

122.36

3/23/2012

19.31

18.7

13

1.5

253

126

1397

up

12/23/2011

IJR

68.92

70.08

12/30/2011

1.16

1.7

1

1.5

255

114

1259

up

12/30/2011

BBH

111.20

122.20

1/20/2012

11.00

9.9

3

1.6

267

119

1315

up

1/20/2012

XLV

35.86

35.64

1/27/2012

-0.22

-0.6

1

1.6

267

119

1316

up

1/27/2012

XLI

36.13

37.29

2/10/2012

1.16

3.2

2

1.6

271

121

1343

up

2/10/2012

IWM

82.11

79.99

3/2/2012

-2.12

-2.6

3

1.6

267

123

1365

up

2/24/2012

DIA

128.93

129.22

4/13/2012

0.29

0.2

7

1.6

268

124

1370

up

3/23/2012

XLF

15.89

15.25

4/6/2012

-0.64

-4.0

2

1.5

262

126

1397

up

4/6/2012

IBB

121.97

125.00

5/25/2012

3.03

2.5

7

1.5

265

119

1319

up

4/13/2012

QQQ

66.53

67.02

4/27/2012

0.49

0.7

2

1.5

266

127

1403

up

4/27/2012

XLY

45.84

43.57

5/25/2012

-2.27

-5.0

4

1.5

260

119

1319

down

7/6/2012

SP500

1354.66

1318.90

5/25/2012

-35.76

-2.6

6

1.4

253

122

1355

up

7/6/2012

IBB

132.36

143.63

9/28/2012

11.27

8.5

12

1.5

264

130

1441

up

7/6/2012

QQQ

64.03

68.47

9/28/2012

4.44

6.9

12

1.5

273

130

1441

down

10/5/2012

SP500

1460.93

1444.49

9/28/2012

-16.44

-1.1

1

1.5

270

132

1456

up

10/5/2012

IBB

147.18

142.33

10/12/2012

-4.85

-3.3

1

1.5

265

129

1429

up

10/5/2012

QQQ

68.58

67.17

10/12/2012

-1.41

-2.1

1

1.5

263

129

1429

down

11/23/2012

SP500

1409.15

1440.13

10/12/2012

30.98

2.2

6

1.5

268

132

1456

up

11/23/2012

SP500

1409.15

1466.47

12/28/2012

57.32

4.1

5

1.5

274

127

1402

up

11/23/2012

XLB

36.31

38.49

12/28/2012

2.18

6.0

5

1.5

282

127

1402

down

1/4/2013

SP500

1466.47

1402.23

12/28/2012

-64.24

-4.4

1

1.5

270

127

1402

up

1/4/2013

SP500

1466.47

1487.85

2/22/2013

21.38

1.5

7

1.5

272

134

1488

up

1/4/2013

XLB

38.49

37.35

2/22/2013

-1.14

-3.0

7

1.4

268

134

1488

down

3/8/2013

SP500

1556.22

1487.85

2/22/2013

-68.37

-4.4

2

1.4

256

134

1488

up

3/8/2013

SP500

1556.22

1588.77

6/21/2013

32.55

2.1

15

1.4

259

144

1589

up

3/15/2013

XLB

39.57

38.37

4/12/2012

-1.20

-3.0

48

1.4

252

144

1589

up

4/12/2012

IBB

169.01

166.42

6/21/2013

-2.59

-1.5

62

1.4

250

144

1589

down

7/5/2013

SP500

1634.20

1588.77

6/21/2013

-45.43

-2.8

2

1.3

243

148

1634

up

7/5/2013

SP500

1634.20

1690.32

7/26/2013

56.12

3.4

3

1.3

247

153

1690

up

7/5/2013

IBB

183.80

187.15

8/16/2013

3.35

1.8

6

1.3

250

150

1655

up

7/26/2013

XLB

40.33

40.65

8/16/2013

0.32

0.8

3

1.3

251

150

1655

down

8/30/2013

SP500

1635.95

1655.25

8/16/2013

19.30

1.2

2

1.3

254

150

1655

up

8/30/2013

IBB

197.46

215.49

12/13/2013

18.03

9.1

67

1.4

265

150

1655

up

8/30/2013

XLB

41.03

41.20

9/6/2013

0.17

0.4

1

1.4

266

150

1655

up

9/6/2013

QQQ

77.26

78.72

9/13/2013

1.46

1.9

1

1.4

268

153

1692

up

9/13/2013

XLB

42.68

44.60

11/22/2013

1.92

4.5

10

1.4

274

163

1806

up

11/22/2013

XLI

50.50

50.47

12/6/2013

-0.03

-0.1

54

1.4

274

163

1806

up

12/6/2013

IWM

112.60

110.62

12/13/2013

-1.98

-1.8

1

1.4

272

163

1806

down

12/20/2013

SP500

1822.92

1777.48

12/13/2013

-45.44

-2.5

51

1.4

265

165

1823

up

12/20/2013

IBB

226.24

243.67

1/24/2014

17.43

7.7

5

1.4

275

163

1806

up

12/20/2013

IWM

114.20

115.12

12/27/2013

0.92

0.8

1

1.4

276

166

1841

up

12/27/2013

XLI

52.04

50.60

1/24/2014

-1.44

-2.8

4

1.4

272

165

1827

down

2/7/2014

SP500

1796.20

1791.03

1/24/2014

-5.17

-0.3

2

1.4

272

162

1796

up

2/7/2014

IBB

248.11

218.42

4/11/2014

-29.69

-12.0

9

1.3

255

164

1818

up

2/7/2014

XLV

56.44

56.07

3/21/2014

-0.37

-0.7

6

1.3

255

169

1868

up

3/21/2014

XLB

47.55

46.45

4/11/2014

-1.10

-2.3

3

1.2

252

164

1818

down

Open

SP500

--

1818.18

4/11/2014




Symbol Lookup

Friday dates, Monday opening prices.

** This date is a Wednesday, due to special circumstances.

New trades are posted here, usually four to six weeks after transaction date
to protect current subscriber privileged information.

The earlier of the two dates in each row is the entry signal date
from the weekly letters for the 'Event' (Buy or Sell).
The later date is the exit date. For short sales, the second date is the entry date.
The Sell column includes original short sales.
Short-sale dates are shaded gray.

cumul %Gain assumes a two-fund long or one-fund short portfolio at all times.
avg %Gain is the average profit of all trades since inception.

Real-time. These prices really happened on the dates specified.
But unless you personally participated in the reported openings,
the table is hypothetical relative to yourself.

The table has been revised since it was first published
to reflect as accurately as possible
a record of real-world results as they occur.

The risk of the System underperforming a buy/hold approach
to the market always remains but appears unlikely
based on 18 years of backtesting.

Modifications and effective dates:
9-4-09: Lagging Trend quickened; result:
four percentage points per annum improvement in returns.
11-27-09: Timing module replaced and sell-short positions are limited
exclusively to the S&P500 or its equivalents
: result: annualized
test returns moved up from 25% to 29% per year.
1/13/12: Across the board replacement of HOLDRs funds
with better suited components. Portfolio is now more rigorously USA
and has more trading access and liquidity.
4/13/12: Selection module changed to reduce frequency
of trades from 20 per year to 7.
9/28/12: Timer module adjusted for improved
quicker response to trend change.

Modifications do not alter any previously reported
Real-time Results. All real-time results are
reported as they occur.

Some of our data handling is manual. Errors can occur.
If you spot any, please let us know, and we will correct them.
Beyond that, this page is the Rock of Gibraltar;
except for fixing errors, no alterations
permitted after the fact.

stocks and stock market timing best profits in the U.S.



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