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Top two results with timing


Table 8.

Current Real-time Results
Buy & Sell Top Two Ranked Funds and Sell Short
Bottom Ranked Fund(s) using Market Timing
From May 31, 2006 to the Present
See footnotes below


Market

Price

$

%

weeks

*avg

cum%

cum%

Trend

Buy

Fund

Buy

Sell

Date

Gain

Gain

held

%Gain

Gain

SP500

SP500

up

5/31/2006

GLD

62.15

63.82

6/2/2006

1.67

2.7

0.3

2.7

101

116

1286

up

5/31/2006

OIH

150.60

157.20

6/2/2006

6.60

4.4

0.3

3.5

104

116

1286

down

6/9/2006

HHH

52.00

53.59

6/2/2006

1.59

3.0

1

3.3

107

113

1252

up

6/9/2006

GLD

60.78

62.09

8/18/2006

1.31

2.2

10

3.0

108

118

1302

up

6/9/2006

OIH

142.80

145.10

7/14/2006

2.30

1.6

5

2.8

109

112

1236

up

7/14/2006

RYURX

8.57

8.30

7/28/2006

-0.27

-3.2

2

1.8

107

116

1279

up

7/28/2006

XLU

34.01

34.45

10/13/2006

0.44

1.3

11

1.7

108

123

1363

up

8/18/2006

IYE

99.02

96.55

9/1/2006

-2.47

-2.5

2

1.2

106

118

1311

up

9/1/2006

EWW

42.21

50.54

1/16/2007

8.33

19.7

20

3.2

117

129

1431

up

10/13/2006

XLV

33.04

33.75

10/20/2006

0.71

2.1

1

3.1

118

124

1369

up

10/20/2006

XLK

22.75

23.60

11/24/2006

0.85

3.7

5

3.2

120

127

1401

up

11/24/2006

ILF

161.89

166.10

1/12/2007

4.21

2.6

7

3.1

122

129

1431

down

1/19/2007

EWJ

14.23

14.10

1/12/2007

-0.13

-0.9

1

2.8

121

129

1431

down

1/26/2007

OIH

132.62

133.51

1/19/2007

0.89

0.7

1

2.7

121

129

1430

down

1/26/2007

SMH

33.94

33.53

1/19/2007

-0.41

-1.2

1

2.4

120

129

1422

up

1/26/2007

EWW

51.07

51.80

3/9/2007

0.73

1.4

6

2.4

121

127

1403

up

1/26/2007

ILF

170.12

169.87

3/9/2007

-0.25

-0.1

6

2.2

121

127

1403

down

3/16/2007

OIH

140.70

138.55

3/9/2007

-2.15

-1.6

1

2.0

119

125

1387

up

3/16/2007

EWW

50.75

56.51

4/27/2007

5.76

11.3

6

2.5

126

135

1494

up

3/16/2007

ILF

168.00

178.51

3/23/2007

10.51

6.3

1

2.7

130

130

1436

up

3/23/2007

XLB

38.02

38.70

4/6/2007

0.68

1.8

2

2.6

131

130

1444

up

4/6/2007

ILF

187.19

191.69

4/13/2007

4.50

2.4

1

2.6

132

131

1453

up

4/13/2007

EWG

30.89

31.06

4/20/2007

0.17

0.6

1

2.5

133

134

1484

up

4/20/2007

EWZ

53.71

59.75

8/24/07

6.04

11.2

18

2.9

140

134

1479

up

4/27/2007

EWG

31.76

31.50

5/11/07

-0.26

-0.8

2

2.7

140

136

1506

up

5/11/07

ILF

200.34

213.18

7/27/2007

12.84

6.4

11

2.9

144

132

1459

up

7/27/2007

EWY

66.40

61.67

8/24/07

-4.73

-7.1

4

2.5

139

134

1479

down

8/21/2007

XLF

33.84

34.46

8/24/2007

0.62

1.8

0

2.5

141

133

1474

up

8/31/07

EWZ

61.80

70.01

9/21/2007

8.21

13.3

3

2.9

151

138

1526

up

8/31/07

EWY

63.76

65.85

10/19/2007

2.09

3.3

7

2.9

153

135

1498

up

9/21/2007

OIH

195.16

191.85

9/28/2007

-3.31

-1.7

1

2.7

152

138

1527

up

9/28/2007

EWZ

74.64

80.60

11/30/2007

5.96

8.0

9

2.9

158

134

1480

up

10/19/2007

ILF

240.00

252.15

11/30/2007

12.15

5.1

6

3.0

162

134

1480

down

12/7/2007

XLF

31.54

30.84

11/30/2007

-0.70

-2.3

1

2.8

158

136

1505

up

12/7/2007

EWZ

85.27

78.35

2/1/2008

-6.92

-8.1

8

2.5

152

126

1395

up

12/7/2007

ILF

266.00

241.75

1/4/2008

-24.25

-9.1

4

2.2

145

128

1414

up

1/4/2008

GLD

85.24

88.51

2/1/2008

3.27

3.8

4

2.2

148

126

1395

up

2/8/2008

XLF

27.07

29.36

2/1/2008

2.29

7.8

1

2.4

159

120

1332

up

2/8/2008

EWZ

75.78

82.00

2/15/2008

6.22

8.2

1

2.5

166

123

1356

up

2/8/2008

GLD

91.04

91.23

2/15/2008

0.19

0.2

1

2.5

166

123

1356

down

4/11/2008

XLF

24.97

27.16

2/15/2008

2.19

8.8

8

2.6

181

120

1332

down

3/28/2008

SMH

28.60

28.80

2/15/2008

0.20

0.7

6

2.6

182

119

1316

down

4/4/2008

EWY

59.87

55.63

3/28/2008

-4.24

-7.6

1

2.3

168

124

1374

down

4/11/2008

XLK

22.59

23.33

4/4/2008

0.74

3.3

1

2.3

173

120

1332

up

4/11/2008

GLD

91.32

85.68

5/2/2008

-5.64

-6.2

3

2.2

168

128

1415

up

4/11/2008

EWZ

82.16

88.05

4/18/2008

5.89

6.7

1

2.3

174

125

1388

up

4/18/2008

ILF

280.19

278.20

6/13/2008

-1.99

-0.7

8

2.2

173

125

1388

up

5/2/2008

EWZ

93.42

83.45

7/11/2008

-9.97

-11.9

10

1.9

163

112

1242

up

6/13/2008

OIH

212.00

183.65

8/1/2008

-28.35

-15.4

7

1.5

150

114

1260

up

7/11/2008

XLE

82.00

74.50

8/1/2008

-7.50

-10.1

3

1.3

143

114

1260

down

5/1/2009

SPY

88.55

126.04

8/1/2008

37.49

29.7

39

1.9

185

79

879

up

5/1/2009

GLD

87.55

89.64

5/8/2009

2.09

2.3

1

1.9

187

83

923

up

5/1/2009

HHH

40.68

39.87

5/15/2009

-0.81

-2.0

2

1.8

185

80

886

up

5/8/2009

EWT

10.45

11.12

7/17/2009

0.67

6.0

10

1.9

191

85

942

up

5/15/2009

EWY

35.63

35.23

6/5/2009

-0.40

-1.1

3

1.8

190

85

938

up

6/5/2009

EWZ

54.60

58.56

8/28/2009

3.96

7.3

12

1.9

197

93

1025

up

7/17/2009

ILF

36.38

39.44

8/7/2009

3.06

8.4

3

2.0

205

91

1009

up

8/7/2009

EPP

35.98

37.08

8/21/2009

1.10

3.1

2

2.1

208

93

1027

up

8/21/2009

EWY

42.62

46.40

10/16/2009

3.78

8.9

8

2.2

217

98

1088

up

8/28/2009

EWW

43.25

43.95

9/11/2009

0.70

1.6

2

2.2

219

94

1040

up

9/11/2009

EPP

38.35

41.71

10/9/2009

3.36

8.8

4

2.3

229

97

1072

up

10/9/2009

EWZ

73.06

75.70

11/6/2009

2.64

3.6

4

2.3

233

97

1072

up

10/16/2009

EPP

42.64

42.08

11/6/2009

-0.56

-1.3

3

2.2

231

97

1072

down

11/13/2009

EWJ

9.58

9.65

11/6/2009

0.07

0.7

1

2.2

232

99

1094

down

11/13/2009

XLU

29.58

29.07

11/6/2009

-0.51

-1.7

1

2.2

230

99

1094

up

11/13/2009

EWZ

75.74

65.59

1/29/2010

-10.15

-13.4

11

1.9

215

97

1074

up

11/13/2009

ILF

47.73

47.65

12/24/2009

-0.08

-0.2

6

1.9

215

102

1128

up

12/24/2009

HHH

59.59

54.40

1/29/2010

-5.19

-8.7

11

1.7

205

97

1074

down

2/26/2010

SP500

1105.36

1092.40

1/22/2010

-12.96

-1.2

5

1.7

203

100

1105

up

2/26/2010

EWW

49.24

50.72

3/5/2010

1.48

3.0

1

1.7

206

103

1138

up

2/26/2010

XLV

31.40

32.03

3/5/2010

0.63

2.0

1

1.7

208

103

1138

up

3/5/2010

OIH

127.13

119.76

3/19/2010

-7.37

-5.8

3

1.6

202

105

1157

up

3/5/2010

IWM

66.64

70.00

5/14/2010

3.36

5.0

10

1.7

207

103

1137

up

3/19/2010

EWW

51.46

50.30

5/14/2010

-1.16

-2.3

10

1.6

205

103

1137

down

7/30/2010

OIH

107.29

111.86

5/14/2010

4.57

4.3

11

1.6

209

100

1108

down

7/9/2010

EWG

19.74

19.91

5/14/2010

0.17

0.9

8

1.6

210

97

1077

down

7/23/2010

EPP

39.70

38.13

7/9/2010

-1.57

-4.0

2

1.6

202

100

1108

down

7/30/2010

IYE

31.58

30.90

7/23/2010

-0.68

-2.2

1

1.5

197

100

1103

up

7/30/2010

GLD

116.13

120.87

8/27/2010

4.74

4.1

4

1.5

201

96

1063

down

8/6/2010

SP500

1122.80

1107.53

7/30/2010

-15.27

-1.4

1

1.5

199

101

1123

up

8/6/2010

EWW

52.20

50.06

8/13/2010

-2.14

-4.1

1

1.4

194

97

1077

up

8/13/2010

XLU

30.57

30.54

8/20/2010

-0.03

-0.1

2

1.4

194

97

1073

up

8/20/2010

EWY

49.29

48.39

8/27/2010

-0.90

-1.8

2

1.4

193

96

1063

down

9/10/2010

SP500

1113.38

1062.90

8/27/2010

-50.48

-4.5

1

1.3

184

101

1113

up

9/10/2010

XLU

31.71

30.95

9/17/2010

-0.76

-2.4

1

1.3

182

102

1127

up

9/10/2010

EWY

51.64

55.75

10/22/2010

4.11

8.0

6

1.3

189

107

1185

up

9/17/2010

EWT

13.21

13.52

10/1/2010

0.31

2.3

3

1.4

191

103

1145

up

10/1/2010

HHH

63.03

73.09

1/21/2011

10.06

16.0

18

1.5

206

116

1283

up

10/22/2010

EPP

46.67

44.50

11/26/2010

-2.17

-4.6

8

1.4

202

107

1189

up

11/26/2010

EWG

22.85

24.04

12/3/2010

1.19

5.2

6

1.5

207

111

1224

up

12/3/2010

OIH

137.59

161.65

4/29/2011

24.06

17.5

22

1.7

225

123

1365

up

1/21/2011

XLE

69.99

75.02

6/3/2011

5.03

7.2

26

1.7

233

118

1300

up

4/29/2011

IYE

46.03

41.95

5/20/2011

-4.08

-8.9

17

1.6

223

120

1333

up

5/20/2011

EWY

61.83

64.57

6/3/2011

2.74

4.4

5

1.6

228

118

1300

down

7/15/2011

SP500

1315.94

1300.26

6/3/2011

-15.68

-1.2

2

1.6

225

119

1316

up

7/15/2011

GLD

155.77

165.48

8/5/2011

9.71

6.2

3

1.7

232

108

1198

up

7/15/2011

XLV

35.07

31.17

8/5/2011

-3.90

-11.1

3

1.5

219

108

1198

down

10/28/2011

SP500

1284.96

1198.48

8/5/2011

-86.48

-6.7

3

1.4

204

116

1285

up

10/21/2011

GLD

160.55

166.59

11/18/2011

6.04

3.8

3

1.5

208

110

1216

up

10/28/2011

HHH

78.61

71.07

11/25/2011

-7.54

-9.6

5

1.4

198

105

1159

up

11/18/2011

XLU

34.41

33.99

11/25/2011

-0.42

-1.2

4

1.3

197

105

1159

down

12/16/2011

SP500

1219.74

1198.48

11/25/2011

-21.26

-1.7

1

1.3

193

110

1220

up

12/16/2011

XLU

34.72

34.78

2/3/2012

0.06

0.2

7

1.3

194

122

1344

up

12/16/2011

XLK

25.06

26.08

1/6/2012

1.02

4.1

3

1.3

198

115

1278

up

1/6/2012

XLV

35.20

35.98

2/10/2012

0.78

2.2

8

1.3

200

121

1343

up

2/3/2012

IWM

82.57

79.99

3/2/2012

-2.58

-3.1

8

1.3

197

124

1370

up

2/10/2012

QQQ

62.93

61.79

5/18/2012

-1.14

-1.8

15

1.3

195

118

1305

up

3/2/2012

EWZ

70.03

67.22

3/16/2012

-2.81

-4.0

5

1.2

191

127

1404

up

3/16/2012

EWG

23.50

23.63

3/23/2012

0.13

0.6

3

1.2

192

126

1397

up

3/23/2012

SPX

1397.11

1397.45

4/6/2012

0.34

0.0

3

1.2

192

126

1397

up

4/6/2012

DIA

128.94

129.22

4/13/2012

0.28

0.2

3

1.2

192

119

1316

up

4/13/2012

SPX

1370.27

1305.05

5/18/2012

-65.22

-4.8

6

1.1

187

132

1457

down

6/1/2012

EPI

15.79

16.06

5/18/2012

0.27

1.7

5

1.1

190

132

1457

down

7/27/2012

EWZ

53.25

50.85

6/1/2012

-2.40

-4.5

0

1.1

182

125

1386

down

8/31/2012

SLV

31.21

26.89

7/27/2012

-4.32

-13.8

0

1.0

157

127

1407

down

9/14/2012

EWZ

56.74

52.55

8/31/2012

-4.19

-7.4

0

0.9

145

132

1465

up

9/21/2012

FXI

34.65

35.00

9/14/2012

0.35

1.0

0

0.9

147

132

1457

up

9/21/2012

SLV

32.93

31.38

10/19/2012

-1.55

-4.7

4

0.8

143

130

1434

up

10/19/2012

EWW

67.62

67.49

11/30/2012

-0.13

-0.2

10

0.8

143

128

1416

up

10/26/2012

EWG

22.94

22.16

11/9/2012

-0.78

-3.4

3

0.8

141

125

1380

up

11/9/2012

EWH

18.66

19.11

12/21/2012

0.45

2.4

8

0.8

142

129

1430

up

12/21/2012

EWG

24.57

24.58

1/4/2013

0.01

0.0

8

0.8

142

133

1466

up

1/4/2013

FXI

41.30

40.63

2/1/2013

-0.67

-1.6

6

0.8

141

135

1496

up

2/1/2013

EWW

74.11

70.34

2/22/2013

-3.77

-5.1

7

0.7

137

134

1488

up

2/22/2013

IWM

89.02

94.23

3/15/2013

5.21

5.9

6

0.8

142

140

1552

up

3/15/2013

EWA

27.31

27.12

3/22/2013

-0.19

-0.7

4

0.8

141

140

1552

up

3/22/2013

EWJ

10.76

11.38

5/24/2013

0.62

5.8

10

0.8

145

140

1552

down

11/15/2013

SPX

1798.82

1652.53

5/24/2013

-146.29

-8.1

9

0.7

133

163

1799

up

11/15/2013

EWG

29.94

30.52

11/29/2013

0.58

1.9

2

0.7

136

163

1807

down

12/20/2013

SPX

1822.92

1806.55

11/29/2013

-16.37

-0.9

2

0.7

135

163

1799

up

12/20/2013

EWG

31.02

30.05

1/3/2014

-0.97

-3.1

2

0.7

130

166

1832

down

open

SPX

--

1832.31

1/3/2014



Symbol Lookup

Friday dates, Monday opening prices.

When new trades occur, they are posted here several weeks later.

The earlier of the two dates in each row is the entry signal date
from the weekly letters for the 'Event' (Buy or Sell).
The later date is the exit date. For short sales, the second date is the entry date.
The Sell column includes original short sales.
Short-sale dates are shaded gray.

'Event' prices are based on start date or Friday closing
(or last trading day of the week) signals and show next day's
(usually Monday's) first opening prices at or after 9:30am ET.

Real-time. These prices really happened on the dates specified.
But unless you personally participated in the reported openings,
the table is hypothetical relative to yourself.

cumul %Gain assumes a two-fund long or two-fund short portfolio' at all times.
avg %Gain is the average profit of all trades since inception.
No allowance has been made for transaction costs.

For the start date, May 31, 2006, the next day's opening
SP500 price was 1270.05.

The direction of Market Trend is as of the earlier
date in either date column.

The table reflects as accurately as possible
a record of real-world results as they occur.

Modifications and effective dates:
1-25-08: Short-term timing tightened; results:
smaller drawdowns and moderate improvement in performance.
2-15-08: Long-term timing rule incorporated. Dampens drawdowns.
Moderate improvement in performance.
8-1-2008: SPY substituted for RYURX per footnote re Ursa
here.
9-30-08: Short-term timing lengthened slightly; results:
0.70% per year improvement in performance; max drawdown unchanged.
1-5-09: Application change: adopts use of two bottom-ranked funds instead of
one for short selling when the makert trend is down. Reduces max drawdown
and improves overall performance by 5% per year.
4/17/09: Long-term timing rule modified. Threshold lowered from 10 to 5.
Improves annual return from inception by two percentage points;
max drawdown unchanged.
11/27/2009 Use single SP-500 when short selling.
Replaces use of sell short two bottom ranked funds.
2/3/12: Across the board replacement of HOLDRs funds
with better suited components. Portfolio is now more rigorously
Worldwide and has more trading access and liquidity.
4/13/12: Selection module changed to reduce frequency
of trades from 20 per year to 7.
5/18/2012: Timer Module adjusted for quicker
response to trend change.
9/21/2012: Timer Module adjusted for improved
quicker response to trend change.

Modifications have no effect on historical
Real-time Results which are recorded
as they occur after a short delay.

Data are posted manually from multiple sources.
Errors can occur. If you find any, please let us know.
Beyond that, this page is the Rock of Gibraltar;
except for fixing errors, no alterations
permitted after the fact.


stocks and stock market timing best profits in the U.S.



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